VAM-Based Chaos Reigns in Florida, as Caused by State-Mandated Teacher Turnovers

The state of Florida is another one of our state’s to watch in that, even since the passage of the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) last January, the state is still moving forward with using its VAMs for high-stakes accountability reform. See my most recent post about one district in Florida here, after the state ordered it to dismiss a good number of its teachers as per their low VAM scores when this school year started. After realizing this also caused or contributed to a teacher shortage in the district, the district scrambled to hire Kelly Services contracted substitute teachers to replace them, after which the district also put administrators back into the classroom to help alleviate the bad situation turned worse.

In a recent post released by The Ledger, teachers from the same Polk County School District (size = 100K students) added much needed details and also voiced concerns about all of this in the article that author Madison Fantozzi titled “Polk teachers: We are more than value-added model scores.”

Throughout this piece Fantozzi covers the story of Elizabeth Keep, a teacher who was “plucked from” the middle school in which she taught for 13 years, after which she was involuntarily placed at a district high school “just days before she was to report back to work.” She was one of 35 teachers moved from five schools in need of reform as based on schools’ value-added scores, although this was clearly done with no real concern or regard of the disruption this would cause these teachers, not to mention the students on the exiting and receiving ends. Likewise, and according to Keep, “If you asked students what they need, they wouldn’t say a teacher with a high VAM score…They need consistency and stability.” Apparently not. In Keep’s case, she “went from being the second most experienced person in [her middle school’s English] department…where she was department chair and oversaw the gifted program, to a [new, and never before] 10th- and 11th-grade English teacher” at the new high school to which she was moved.

As background, when Polk County School District officials presented turnaround plans to the State Board of Education last July, school board members “were most critical of their inability to move ‘unsatisfactory’ teachers out of the schools and ‘effective’ teachers in.”  One board member, for example, expressed finding it “horrendous” that the district was “held hostage” by the extent to which the local union was protecting teachers from being moved as per their value-added scores. Referring to the union, and its interference in this “reform,” he accused the unions of “shackling” the districts and preventing its intended reforms. Note that the “effective” teachers who are to replace the “ineffective” ones can earn up to $7,500 in bonuses per year to help the “turnaround” the schools into which they enter.

Likewise, the state’s Commissioner of Education concurred saying that she also “wanted ‘unsatisfactory’ teachers out and ‘highly effective’ teachers in,” again, with effectiveness being defined by teachers’ value-added or lack thereof, even though (1) the teachers targeted only had one or two years of the three years of value-added data required by state statute, and even though (2) the district’s senior director of assessment, accountability and evaluation noted that, in line with a plethora of other research findings, teachers being evaluated using the state’s VAM have a 51% chance of changing their scores from one year to the next. This lack of reliability, as we know it, should outright prevent any such moves in that without some level of stability, valid inferences from which valid decisions are to be made cannot be drawn. It’s literally impossible.

Nonetheless, state board of education members “unanimously… threatened to take [all of the district’s poor performing] over or close them in 2017-18 if district officials [didn’t] do what [the Board said].” See also other tales of similar districts in the article available, again, here.

In Keep’s case, “her ‘unsatisfactory’ VAM score [that caused the district to move her, as] paired with her ‘highly effective’ in-class observations by her administrators brought her overall district evaluation to ‘effective’…[although she also notes that]…her VAM scores fluctuate because the state has created a moving target.” Regardless, Keep was notified “five days before teachers were due back to their assigned schools Aug. 8 [after which she was] told she had to report to a new school with a different start time that [also] disrupted her 13-year routine and family that shares one car.”

VAM-based chaos reigns, especially in Florida.

U.S. Department of Education: Value-Added Not Good for Evaluating Schools and Principals

Just this month, the Institute of Education Sciences (IES) wing of the U.S. Department of Education released a report about using value-added models (VAMs) for measuring school principals’ performance. The article conducted by researchers at Mathematica Policy Research and titled “Can Student Test Scores Provide Useful Measures of School Principals’ Performance?” can be found online here, with my summary of the study findings highlighted next and herein.

Before the passage of the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA), 40 states had written into their state statutes, as incentivized by the federal government, to use growth in student achievement growth for annual principal evaluation purposes. More states had written growth/value-added models (VAMs) for teacher evaluation purposes, which we have covered extensively via this blog, but this pertains only to school and/or principal evaluation purposes. Now since the passage of ESSA, and the reduction in the federal government’s control over state-level policies, states now have much more liberty to more freely decide whether to continue using student achievement growth for either purposes. This paper is positioned within this reasoning, and more specifically to help states decide whether or to what extent they might (or might not) continue to move forward with using growth/VAMs for school and principal evaluation purposes.

Researchers, more specifically, assessed (1) reliability – or the consistency or stability of these ratings over time, which is important “because only stable parts of a rating have the potential to contain information about principals’ future performance; unstable parts reflect only transient aspects of their performance;” and (2) one form of multiple evidences of validity – the predictive validity of these principal-level measures, with predictive validity defined as “the extent to which ratings from these measures accurately reflect principals’ contributions to student achievement in future years.” In short, “A measure could have high predictive validity only if [emphasis added] it was highly stable between consecutive years [i.e., reliability]…and its stable part was strongly related to principals’ contributions to student achievement” over time (i.e., predictive validity).

Researchers used principal-level value-added (unadjusted and adjusted for prior achievement and other potentially biasing demographic variables) to more directly examine “the extent to which student achievement growth at a school differed from average growth statewide for students with similar prior achievement and background characteristics.” Also important to note is that the data they used to examine school-level value-added came from Pennsylvania, which is one of a handful of states that uses the popular and proprietary (and controversial) Education Value-Added Assessment System (EVAAS) statewide.

Here are the researchers’ key findings, taken directly from the study’s summary (again, for more information see the full manuscript here).

  • The two performance measures in this study that did not account for students’ past achievement—average achievement and adjusted average achievement—provided no information for predicting principals’ contributions to student achievement in the following year.
  • The two performance measures in this study that accounted for students’ past achievement—school value-added and adjusted school value-added—provided, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals’ contributions to student achievement in the following year. This was due to instability and inaccuracy in the stable parts.
  • Averaging performance measures across multiple recent years did not improve their accuracy for predicting principals’ contributions to student achievement in the following year. In simpler terms, a principal’s average rating over three years did not predict his or her future contributions more accurately than did a rating from the most recent year only. This is more of a statistical finding than one that has direct implications for policy and practice (except for silly states who might, despite findings like those presented in this study, decide that they can use one year to do this not at all well instead of three years to do this not at all well).

Their bottom line? “…no available measures of principal [/school] performance have yet been shown to accurately identify principals [/schools] who will contribute successfully to student outcomes in future years,” especially if based on students’ test scores, although the researchers also assert that “no research has ever determined whether non-test measures, such as measures of principals’ leadership practices, [have successfully or accurately] predict[ed] their future contributions” either.

The researchers follow-up with a highly cautionary note: “the value-added measures will make plenty of mistakes when trying to identify principals [/schools] who will contribute effectively or ineffectively to student achievement in future years. Therefore, states and districts should exercise caution when using these measures to make major decisions about principals. Given the inaccuracy of the test-based measures, state and district leaders and researchers should also make every effort to identify nontest measures that can predict principals’ future contributions to student outcomes [instead].”

Citation: Chiang, H., McCullough, M., Lipscomb, S., & Gill, B. (2016). Can student test scores provide useful measures of school principals’ performance? Washington DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences. Retrieved from http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/pubs/2016002/pdf/2016002.pdf

New Mexico Lawsuit Update

As you all likely recall, the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), joined by the Albuquerque Teachers Federation (ATF), last fall, filed a “Lawsuit in New Mexico Challenging [the] State’s Teacher Evaluation System.” Plaintiffs charged that the state’s teacher evaluation system, imposed on the state in 2012 by the state’s current Public Education Department (PED) Secretary Hanna Skandera (with value-added counting for 50% of teachers’ evaluation scores), was unfair, error-ridden, spurious, harming teachers, and depriving students of high-quality educators, among other claims (see the actual lawsuit here). Again, I’m serving as the expert witness on the side of the plaintiffs in this suit.

As you all likely also recall, in December of 2015, State District Judge David K. Thomson granted a preliminary injunction preventing consequences from being attached to the state’s teacher evaluation data. More specifically, Judge Thomson ruled that the state could proceed with “developing” and “improving” its teacher evaluation system, but the state was not to make any consequential decisions about New Mexico’s teachers using the data the state collected until the state (and/or others external to the state) could evidence to the court during another trial (initially set for April 2016, then postponed to October 2016, and likely to be postponed again) that the system is reliable, valid, fair, uniform, and the like (see prior post on this ruling here).

Well, many of you have (since these prior posts) written requesting updates regarding this lawsuit, and here is one as released jointly by the AFT and ATF. This accurately captures the current and ongoing situation:

September 23, 2016

Many of you will remember the classic Christmas program, Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer, and how the terrible and menacing abominable snowman became harmless once his teeth were removed. This is how you should view the PED evaluation you recently received – a harmless abominable snowman.  

The math is still wrong, the methodology deeply flawed, but the preliminary injunction achieved by our union, removed the teeth from PED’s evaluations, and so there is no reason to worry. As explained below, we will continue to fight these evaluations and will not rest until the PED institutes an evaluation system that is fair, meaningful, and consistently applied.

For all of you, who just got arbitrarily labeled by the PED in your summative evaluations, just remember, like the abominable snowman, these labels have no teeth, and your career is safe.

2014-2015 Evaluations

These evaluations, as you know, were the subject of our lawsuit filed in 2014. As a result of the Court’s order, the preliminary injunction, no negative consequences can result from your value-added scores.

In an effort to comply with the Court’s order, the PED announced in May it would be issuing new regulations.  This did not happen, and it did not happen in June, in July, in August, or in September. The bottom line is the PED still has not issued new regulations – though it still promises that those regulations are coming soon. So much for accountability.

The trial on the old regulations, scheduled for October 24, has been postponed based upon the PED’s repetitive assertions that new regulations would be issued.

In addition, we have repeatedly asked the PED to provide their data, which they finally did, however it lacked the codebook necessary to meaningfully interpret the data. We view this as yet another stall tactic.

Soon, we will petition the Court for an order compelling PED to produce the documents it promised months ago. Our union’s lawyers and expert witnesses will use this data to critically analyze the PED’s claims and methodology … again.

2015-2016 Evaluations

Even though the PED has condensed the number of ways an educator can be evaluated in a false attempt to satisfy the Courts, the fact remains that value-added models are based on false math and highly inaccurate data. In addition to the PED’s information we have requested for the 2014-2015 evaluations, we have requested all data associated with the current 2015-2016 evaluations.

If our experts determine the summative evaluation scores are again, “based on fundamentally, and irreparably, flawed methodology which is further plagued by consistent and appalling data errors,” we will also challenge the 2015-2016 evaluations. If the PED ever releases new regulations, and we determine that they violate statute (again), we will challenge those regulations, as well.

Rest assured our union will not stop challenging the PED until we are satisfied they have adopted an evaluation system that is respectful of students and educators. We will keep you updated as we learn more information, including the release of new regulations and the rescheduled trial date.

In Solidarity,

Stephanie Ly                                   Ellen Bernstein
President, AFT NM                         President, ATF

New Mexico Is “At It Again”

“A Concerned New Mexico Parent” sent me yet another blog entry for you all to stay apprised of the ongoing “situation” in New Mexico and the continuous escapades of the New Mexico Public Education Department (NMPED). See “A Concerned New Mexico Parent’s” prior posts here, here, and here, but in this one (s)he writes what follows:

Well, the NMPED is at it again.

They just released the teacher evaluation results for the 2015-2016 school year. And, the report and media press releases are a something.

Readers of this blog are familiar with my earlier documentation of the myriad varieties of scoring formulas used by New Mexico to evaluate its teachers. If I recall, I found something like 200 variations in scoring formulas [see his/her prior post on this here with an actual variation count at n=217].

However, a recent article published in the Albuquerque Journal indicates that, now according to the NMPED, “only three types of test scores are [being] used in the calculation: Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers [PARCC], end-of-course exams, and the [state’s new] Istation literacy test.” [Recall from another article released last January that New Mexico’s Secretary of Education Hanna Skandera is also the head of the governing board for the PARCC test].

Further, the Albuquerque Journal article author reports that the “PED also altered the way it classifies teachers, dropping from 107 options to three. Previously, the system incorporated many combinations of criteria such as a teacher’s years in the classroom and the type of standardized test they administer.”

The new state-wide evaluation plan is also available in more detail here. Although I should also add that there has been no published notification of the radical changes in this plan. It was just simply and quietly posted on NMPED’s public website.

Important to note, though, is that for Group B teachers (all levels), the many variations documented previously have all been replaced by end-of-course (EOC) exams. Also note that for Group A teachers (all levels) the percentage assigned to the PARCC test has been reduced from 50% to 35%. (Oh, how the mighty have fallen …). The remaining 15% of the Group A score is to be composed of EOC exam scores.

There are only two small problems with this NMPED simplification.

First, in many districts, no EOC exams were given to Group B teachers in the 2015-2016 school year, and none were given in the previous year either. Any EOC scores that might exist were from a solitary administration of EOC exams three years previously.

Second, for Group A teachers whose scores formerly relied solely on the PARCC test for 50% of their score, no EOC exams were ever given.

Thus, NMPED has replaced their policy of evaluating teachers on the basis of students they don’t teach to this new policy of evaluating teachers on the basis of tests they never administered!

Well done, NMPED (not…)

Luckily, NMPED still cannot make any consequential decisions based on these data, again, until NMPED proves to the court that the consequential decisions that they would still very much like to make (e.g., employment, advancement and licensure decisions) are backed by research evidence. I know, interesting concept…

A Case of VAM-Based Chaos in Florida

Within a recent post, I wrote about my recent “silence” explaining that, apparently, post the passage of federal government’s (January 1, 2016) passage of the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) that no longer requires teachers to be evaluated by their student’s tests score using VAMs (see prior posts on this here and here), “crazy” VAM-related events have apparently subsided. While I noted in the post that this also did not mean that certain states and districts are not still drinking (and overdosing on) the VAM-based Kool-Aid, what I did not note is that the ways by which I get many of the stories I cover on this blog is via Google Alerts. This is where I have noticed a significant decline in VAM-related stories. Clearly, however, the news outlets often covered via Google Alerts don’t include district-level stories, so to cover these we must continue to rely on our followers (i.e., teachers, administrators, parents, students, school board members, etc.) to keep the stories coming.

Coincidentally — Billy Townsend, who is running for a school board seat in Polk County, Florida (district size = 100K students) — sent me one such story. As an edublogger himself, he actually sent me three blog posts (see post #1, post #2, and post #3 listed by order of relevance) capturing what is happening in his district, again, as situated under the state of Florida’s ongoing, VAM-based, nonsense. I’ve summarized the situation below as based on his three posts.

In short, the state ordered the district to dismiss a good number of its teachers as per their VAM scores when this school year started. “[T]his has been Florida’s [educational reform] model for nearly 20 years [actually since 1979, so 35 years]: Choose. Test. Punish. Stigmatize. Segregate. Turnover.” Because the district already had a massive teacher shortage as well, however, these teachers were replaced with Kelly Services contracted substitute teachers. Thereafter, district leaders decided that this was not “a good thing,” and they decided that administrators and “coaches” would temporarily replace the substitute teachers to make the situation “better.” While, of course, the substitutes’ replacements did not have VAM scores themselve, they were nonetheless deemed fit to teach and clearly more fit to teach than the teachers who were terminated as based on their VAM scores.

According to one teacher who anonymously wrote about her terminated teacher colleagues, and one of the district’s “best” teachers: “She knew our kids well. She understood how to reach them, how to talk to them. Because she ‘looked like them’ and was from their neighborhood, she [also] had credibility with the students and parents. She was professional, always did what was best for students. She had coached several different sports teams over the past decade. Her VAM score just wasn’t good enough.”

Consequently, this has turned into a “chaotic reality for real kids and adults” throughout the county’s schools, and the district and state apparently realized this by “threaten[ing] all of [the district’s] teachers with some sort of ethics violation if they talk about what’s happening” throughout the district. While “[t]he repetition of stories that sound just like this from [the districts’] schools is numbing and heartbreaking at the same time,” the state, district, and school board, apparently, “has no interest” in such stories.

Put simply, and put well as this aligns with our philosophy here: “Let’s [all] consider what [all of this] really means: [Florida] legislators do not want to hear from you if you are communicating a real experience from your life at a school — whether you are a teacher, parent, or student. Your experience doesn’t matter. Only your test score.”

Isn’t that the unfortunate truth; hence, and with reference to the introduction above, please do keep these relatively more invisible studies coming so that we can share out with the nation and make such stories more visible and accessible. VAMs, again, are alive and well, just perhaps in more undisclosed ways, like within districts as is the case here.

Houston Education and Civil Rights Summit (Friday, Oct. 14 to Saturday, Oct. 15)

For those of you interested, and perhaps close to Houston, Texas, I will be presenting my research on the Houston Independent School District’s (now hopefully past) use of the Education Value-Added Assessment System for more high-stakes, teacher-level consequences than anywhere else in the nation.

As you may recall from prior posts (see, for example, here, here, and here), seven teachers in the disrict, with the support of the Houston Federation of Teachers (HFT), are taking the district to federal court over how their value-added scores are/were being used, and allegedly abused. The case, Houston Federation of Teachers, et al. v. Houston ISD, is still ongoing; although, also as per a prior post, the school board just this past June, in a 3:3 split vote, elected to no longer pay an annual $680K to SAS Institute Inc. to calculate the district’s EVAAS estimates. Hence, by non-renewing this contract it appears, at least for the time being, that the district is free from its prior history using the EVAAS for high-stakes accountability. See also this post here for an analysis of Houston’s test scores post EVAAS implementation,  as compared to other districts in the state of Texas. Apparently, all of the time and energy invested did not pay off for the district, or more importantly its teachers and students located within its boundaries.

Anyhow, those presenting and attending the conference–the Houston Education and Civil Rights Summit, as also sponsored and supported by United Opt Out National–will prioritize and focus on the “continued challenges of public education and the teaching profession [that] have only been exacerbated by past and current policies and practices,”  as well as “the shifting landscape of public education and its impact on civil and human rights and civil society.”

As mentioned, I will be speaking, alongside two featured speakers: Samuel Abrams–the Director of the National Center for the Study of Privatization in Education (NCSPE) and an instructor in Columbia’s Teachers College, and Julian Vasquez Heilig–Professor of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at California State Sacramento and creator of the blog Cloaking Inequality. For more information about these and other speakers, many of whom are practitioners, see  the conference website available, again, here.

When is it? Friday, October 14, 2016 at 4:00 PM through to Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 8:00 PM (CDT).

Where is it? Houston Hilton Post Oak – 2001 Post Oak Blvd, Houston, TX 77056

Hope to see you there!

Why So Silent? Did You Think I Have Left You for Good?

You might recognize the title of this post from one of my all time favorite Broadway shoes: The Phantom Of The Opera – Masquerade/Why So Silent. I thought I would use it here, to explain my recent and notable silence on the topic of value-added models (VAMs).

First, I recently returned from summer break, although I still occasionally released blog posts when important events related to VAMs and their (ab)uses for teacher evaluation purposes occurred. More importantly, though, the frequency with which said important events have happened has, relatively, fortunately, and significantly declined.

Yes — the so-far-so-good news is that schools, school districts, and states are apparently not as nearly active, or actively pursuing the use of VAMs for stronger teacher accountability purposes for educational reform. Likewise, schools, school districts, and states are not as nearly prone to make really silly (and stupid) decisions with these models, especially without the research supporting such decisions.

This is very much due to the federal government’s recent (January 1, 2016) passage of the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) that no longer requires teachers to be evaluated by their student’s tests score, for example, using VAMs (see prior posts on this here and here).

While there are still states, districts, and schools that are still moving forward with VAMs and their original high-stakes teacher evaluation plans as largely based on VAMs (e.g., New Mexico, Tennessee, Texas), many others have really begun to rethink the importance and vitality of VAMs as part of their teacher evaluation systems for educational reform (e.g., Alabam, Georgia, Oklahoma). This, of course, is primary at the state level. Certainly, there are districts out there representing both sides of the same continuum.

Accordingly, however, I have had multiple conversations with colleagues and others regarding what I might do with this blog should people stop seriously investing and riding their teacher/educational reform efforts on VAMs. While I don’t think that this will ever happen, there is honestly nothing I would like more (as an academic) than to close this blog down, should educational policymakers, politicians, philanthropists, and others focus on new and entirely different, non-Draconian ways to reform America’s public schools. We shall see how it goes.

But for now, why have I been relatively so silent? The VAM as we currently know it, in use and implementation, might very well be turning into our VAMtom of the Profession 😉

Another Review of My Book “Rethinking Value-Added Models”

For those of you who might recall, just over two years ago my book titled “Rethinking Value-Added Models in Education: Critical Perspectives on Tests and Assessment-Based Accountability,” was officially released by my publisher – Routledge, New York. The book has since been reviewed twice – once by Rachael Gabriel, an Assistant Professor at the University of Connecticut, in Education Review: A Multilingual Journal of Book Reviews (click here for the full review), and another time by Lauren Bryant, Research Scholar at North Carolina State University, in Teachers College Record (although the full review is no longer available for free).

It was just reviewed again, this time by Natalia Guzman, a doctoral student at the University of Maryland. This review was published, as well, in Education Review: A Multilingual Journal of Book Reviews (click here for the full review). Here are some of the highlights and key sections, especially important for those of you who might have not yet read the book, or know others who should.

  • “Throughout the book, author Audrey Amrein-Beardsley synthesizes and critiques
    numerous studies and cases from both academic and popular outlets. The main
    themes that organize the content of book involve the development, implementation,
    consequences, and future of valued-added methods for teacher accountability: 1) the use of social engineering in American educational policy; 2) the negative impact on the human factor in schools; 3) the acceptance of unquestioned theoretical and methodological assumptions in VAMs; and 4) the availability of conventional alternatives and solutions to a newly created problem.”
  • “The book’s most prominent theme, the use of social engineering in American educational policy, emerges in the introductory chapters of the book. The author argues that U.S. educational policy is predicated on the concept of social engineering—a powerful instrument that influences attitudes and social behaviors to promote the achievement of idealized political ends. In the case of American educational policy, the origins and development of VAMs is connected to the
    goal of improving student achievement and solving the problem of America’s failing public school system.”
  • “The human factor involved in the implementation of VAMs emerges as a
    prominent theme…Amrein-Beardsley uses powerful examples of research-
    based accounts of how VAMs affected teachers and school districts, important
    aspects of the human factor involved in the implementation of these models.”
  • “This reader appreciated the opportunity to learn about research that directly questions similar statistical and methodological assumptions in a way that was
    highly accessible, surprisingly, since discussions about VAM methodology tends to
    be highly technical.”
  • “The book closes with an exploration of some traditional and conventional alternatives to VAMs…The virtue of [these] proposal[s] is that it contextualizes teacher evaluation, offering multiple perspectives of the complexity of teaching, and it engages different members of the school community, bringing in the voices of teacher colleagues, parents and/or students.”
  • “Overall, this book offers one of the most comprehensive critiques of what we
    know about VAMs in the American public education system. The author contextualizes her critique to added-value methods in education within a larger socio-political discussion that revisits the history and evolution of teacher accountability in the US. The book incorporates studies from academic sources as well as summarizes cases from popular outlets such as newspapers and blogs.
    This author presents all this information using nontechnical language, which makes it suitable for the general public as well as academic readers. Another major contribution of this book is that it gives voice to the teachers and school administrators that were affected by VAMs, an aspect that has not yet been
    thoroughly researched.”

Thanks go out to Natalia for such a great review, and also effectively summarizing what she sees (and others have also seen) as the “value-added” in this book.

Using VAMs “In Not Very Intelligent Ways:” A Q&A with Jesse Rothstein

The American Prospect — a self-described “liberal intelligence” magazine — featured last week a question and answer, interview-based article with Jesse Rothstein — Professor of Economics at University of California – Berkeley — on “The Economic Consequences of Denying Teachers Tenure.” Rothstein is a great choice for this one in that indeed he is an economist, but one of a few, really, who is deep into the research literature and who, accordingly, has a balanced set of research-based beliefs about value-added models (VAMs), their current uses in America’s public schools, and what they can and cannot do (theoretically) to support school reform. He’s probably most famous for a study he conducted in 2009 about how the non-random, purposeful sorting of students into classrooms indeed biases (or distorts) value-added estimations, pretty much despite the sophistication of the statistical controls meant to block (or control for) such bias (or distorting effects). You can find this study referenced here, and a follow-up to this study here.

In this article, though, the interviewer — Rachel Cohen — interviews Jesse primarily about how in California a higher court recently reversed the Vergara v. California decision that would have weakened teacher employment protections throughout the state (see also here). “In 2014, in Vergara v. California, a Los Angeles County Superior Court judge ruled that a variety of teacher job protections worked together to violate students’ constitutional right to an equal education. This past spring, in a 3–0 decision, the California Court of Appeals threw this ruling out.”

Here are the highlights in my opinion, by question and answer, although there is much more information in the full article here:

Cohen: “Your research suggests that even if we got rid of teacher tenure, principals still wouldn’t fire many teachers. Why?”

Rothstein: “It’s basically because in most cases, there’s just not actually a long list of [qualified] people lining up to take the jobs; there’s a shortage of qualified teachers to hire.” In addition, “Lots of schools recognize it makes more sense to keep the teacher employed, and incentivize them with tenure…”I’ve studied this, and it’s basically economics 101. There is evidence that you get more people interested in teaching when the job is better, and there is evidence that firing teachers reduces the attractiveness of the job.”

Cohen: Your research suggests that even if we got rid of teacher tenure, principals still wouldn’t fire many teachers. Why?

Rothstein: It’s basically because in most cases, there’s just not actually a long list of people lining up to take the jobs; there’s a shortage of qualified teachers to hire. If you deny tenure to someone, that creates a new job opening. But if you’re not confident you’ll be able to fill it with someone else, that doesn’t make you any better off. Lots of schools recognize it makes more sense to keep the teacher employed, and incentivize them with tenure.

Cohen: “Aren’t most teachers pretty bad their first year? Are we denying them a fair shot if we make tenure decisions so soon?”

Rothstein: “Even if they’re struggling, you can usually tell if things will turn out to be okay. There is quite a bit of evidence for someone to look at.”

Cohen: “Value-added models (VAM) played a significant role in the Vergara trial. You’ve done a lot of research on these tools. Can you explain what they are?”

Rothstein: “[The] value-added model is a statistical tool that tries to use student test scores to come up with estimates of teacher effectiveness. The idea is that if we define teacher effectiveness as the impact that teachers have on student test scores, then we can use statistics to try to then tell us which teachers are good and bad. VAM played an odd role in the trial. The plaintiffs were arguing that now, with VAM, we have these new reliable measures of teacher effectiveness, so we should use them much more aggressively, and we should throw out the job statutes. It was a little weird that the judge took it all at face value in his decision.”

Cohen: “When did VAM become popular?”

Rothstein: “I would say it became a big deal late in the [George W.] Bush administration. That’s partly because we had new databases that we hadn’t had previously, so it was possible to estimate on a large scale. It was also partly because computers had gotten better. And then VAM got a huge push from the Obama administration.”

Cohen: “So you’re skeptical of VAM.”

Rothstein: “I think the metrics are not as good as the plaintiffs made them out to be. There are bias issues, among others.”

Cohen: “During the Vergara trials you testified against some of Harvard economist Raj Chetty’s VAM research, and the two of you have been going back and forth ever since. Can you describe what you two are arguing about?”

Rothstein: “Raj’s testimony at the trial was very focused on his work regarding teacher VAM. After the trial, I really dug in to understand his work, and I probed into some of his assumptions, and found that they didn’t really hold up. So while he was arguing that VAM showed unbiased results, and VAM results tell you a lot about a teacher’s long-term outcomes, I concluded that what his approach really showed was that value-added scores are moderately biased, and that they don’t really tell us one way or another about a teacher’s long-term outcomes” (see more about this debate here).

Cohen: “Could VAM be improved?”

Rothstein: “It may be that there is a way to use VAM to make a better system than we have now, but we haven’t yet figured out how to do that. Our first attempts have been trying to use them in not very intelligent ways.”

Cohen: “It’s been two years since the Vergara trial. Do you think anything’s changed?”

Rothstein: “I guess in general there’s been a little bit of a political walk-back from the push for VAM. And this retreat is not necessarily tied to the research evidence; sometimes these things just happen. But I’m not sure the trial court opinion would have come out the same if it were held today.”

Again, see more from this interview, also about teacher evaluation systems in general, job protections, and the like in the full article here.

Citation: Cohen, R. M. (2016, August 4). Q&A: The economic consequences of eenying teachers tenure. The American Prospect. Retrieved from http://prospect.org/article/qa-economic-consequences-denying-teachers-tenure

“The 74’s” Fact-Checking of the Democratic Platform

As we all likely know well by now, speakers for both parties during last and this weeks’ Republican and Democratic Conventions, respectively, spoke and in many cases spewed a number of exaggerated, misleading, and outright false claims about multiple areas of American public policy…educational policy included. Hence, many fact-checking journalists, websites, social mediaists, and the like, have since been trying to hold both parties accountable for their facts and make “the actual facts” more evident. For a funny video about all of this, actually, see HBO’s John Oliver’s most recent bit on “last week’s unsurprisingly surprising Republican convention” here (11 minutes) and some of their expressions of “feelings” as “facts.”

Fittingly, The 74 — an (allegedly) non-partisan, honest, and fact-based news site (ironically) covering America’s education system “in crisis,” and publishing articles “backed by investigation, expertise, and experience” and backed by Editor-in-Chief Campbell Brown — took on such a fact-checking challenge in an article senior staff writer Matt Burnum wrote: “Researchers: No Consensus Against Using Test Scores in Teacher Evaluations, Contra Democratic Platform.”

Apparently, what author Barnum actually did to justify the title and contents of his article, however, was (1) take the claim written into the 55-page “2016 Democratic Party Platform” document that: “We [the Democratic Party] oppose…the use of student test scores in teacher and principal evaluations, a practice which has been repeatedly rejected by researchers” (p. 33); then (2) generalize what being “repeatedly rejected by researchers” means, to inferring that a “consensus,” “wholesale,” and “categorical rejection” among researchers “that such scores should not be used whatsoever in evaluation” exists; then (3) proceed to ask a non-random or representative sample of nine researchers on the topic about whether, indeed, his deduced conclusion was true; to (4) ultimately claim that “the [alleged] suggestion that there is a scholarly consensus against using test scores in teacher evaluation is misleading.”

Misleading, rather, is Barnum’s framing of his entire piece, as Barnum twisted the original statement into something more alarmist, which apparently warranted his fact-checking, after which he engaged in a weak convenience-based investigation, with unsubstantiated findings ultimately making the headline of this subsequent article. It seems that those involved in reporting “the actual facts” also need some serious editing and fact-checking themselves in that, “The 74’s poll of just nine researchers [IS NOT] may not be a representative sample of expert opinion,” whatsoever.

Nonetheless, the nine respondents (also without knowledge of who was contacted but did not respond, i.e., a response rate) included: Dan Goldhaber — Adjunct Professor of Education and Economics at the University of Washington, Bothell; Kirabo Jackson — Associate Professor of Education and Economics at Northwestern University; Cory Koedel — Associate Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Missouri; Matthew Kraft — Assistant Professor of Education and Economics at Brown University; Susan Moore Johnson — Professor of Teacher Policy at Harvard University; Jesse Rothstein — Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of California, Berkeley;  Matthew Steinberg — Assistant Professor of Educational Policy at the University of Pennsylvania; Katharine Strunk — Associate Professor of Educational Policy at the University of Southern California; Jim Wyckoff — Professor of Educational Policy at the University of Virginia. You can see what appear to be these researchers’ full responses to Barnum’s undisclosed solicitation at the bottom of this article, available again here, noting that the opinions of these nine are individually important as I too would value some of these nine as among (but not representative of) the experts in the area of research (see a fuller list of 37 such experts here, 2/3rds of whom are listed above).

Regardless, and assuming that Barnum’s original misinterpretation was correct, I think how Katharine Strunk put it is likely more representative of the group of researchers on this topic as a whole as based on the research: “I think the research suggests that we need multiple measures — test scores [depending on the extent to which evidence supports low- and more importantly high-stakes use], observations, and others – to rigorously and fairly evaluate teachers.” Likewise, how Jesse Rothstein framed his response, in my opinion, is another takeaway for those looking for what is more likely a more accurate and representative statement on this hypothetical consensus: “the weight of the evidence, and the weight of expert opinion, points to the conclusion that we haven’t figured out ways to use test scores in teacher evaluations that yield benefits greater than costs.”

With that being said, what is likely most the “fact” desired in this particular instance is that “the use of student test scores in teacher and principal evaluations, [IS] a practice which has been repeatedly rejected by researchers.” But it has also been disproportionately promoted by researchers with disciplinary backgrounds in economics (although this is not always the case), and disproportionately rejected so by those with disciplinary backgrounds in education, educational policy, educational measurement and statistics, and the like (although this is not always the case). The bottom line is that reaching a consensus in this area of research is much more difficult than Barnum and others might otherwise assume.

Should one really want to “factually” answer such a question, (s)he would have to more carefully: (1) define the problem and subsequent research question (e.g., the platform never claimed in the first place that said “consensus” existed), (2) engage in background research to (3) methodically define the population of researchers from which (4) the research sample is to be drawn to adequately represent the population, after which (5) an appropriate response rate is to be secured. If there are methodological weaknesses in any of these steps, the research exercise should likely stop, as Barnum should have during step #1 in this case here.